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A ticking clock on Kosovo's status

Chris Patten

A ticking clock on Kosovo's status

By Chris Patten August 10, 2007

IT TOOK SERBIA 20 years of civic unrest, a devastating war, and eight years of an international protectorate over a chunk of its territory, but Premier Vojislav Kostunica finally claims to have a plan for dealing with Kosovo. The only problem is that no one seems to know what it is.

Despite Belgrade's adamant rhetoric demanding Kosovo remain a part of Serbia, the Serbian authorities have never offered any proposal as to how the 90 percent Albanian population of the breakaway province would ever again actually live under a Serb wing. Of course, thinking about the people of Kosovo has rarely been Serbia's strong point: This is, after all, where Belgrade conducted an ethnic cleansing campaign in 1999, massacring thousands of Albanian civilians and driving 800,000 into neighboring countries, until NATO bombing forced a change of policy.
If Belgrade does indeed have a plan, the only thing anyone knows of it comes from a set of vaguely worded, sometimes contradictory statements by Serbia's young foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic, and the minister for Kosovo, Slobodan Samardzic.

Belgrade's solution to the Kosovo status question is to call on the West to save Serbian democracy at the expense of regional stability and to bear all the financial costs, legal and security burdens associated with denying Kosovo its independence, and keeping it forcibly under Serbian sovereignty. Belgrade has not discussed how or whether it would integrate Albanians into Serbia's society, economy, and polity. Nor has it mentioned offering them the same parliamentary representation, human rights guarantees, cultural rights, and special protections the Albanians would be obligated to offer Kosovo's Serb minority under the UN proposal.
But Belgrade hopes that Brussels and Washington might seize on the offer and ignore the fact that this represents largely a codification of the status quo.

Due to Russian obstruction in the UN Security Council, a troika made up of the European Union, United States, and Russia will be forced to begin a new round of negotiations over Kosovo's status in mid-August, duplicating UN negotiator Martti Ahtisaari's earlier effort. During the initial period of shuttle diplomacy, the troika is expected to get input from Belgrade and Pristina, and the hope is that they will reach a compromise acceptable to both.

But there is no indication that Belgrade's position on Kosovo will change. Serbian politicians cannot formulate a plan for integrating Albanians into Serbia's political, social, and economic life, because to do so would create terminal domestic political risks for Serbia's government, and any such plan would face deep difficulty in the nationalist-dominated parliament. And now, emboldened by Moscow (pursuing its own cynical interest), Belgrade appears even to be hardening its stance, as seen in a parliamentary resolution of July 24 that authorized the government to take whatever actions it deemed necessary to protect Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo.

Belgrade is also working toward partitioning the province as a fall-back position, a continuation of Slobodan Milosevic's policy, and hoping that by stalling and delaying Kosovo independence, the Albanians will resort to a unilateral declaration of independence that splits the international community or violence that makes the Serbs look good.

In the meantime, the clock is ticking, and Kosovo needs answers. Kosovo Albanians have waited eight years for the international community to pull them out of international legal limbo and resolve their status. Although outnumbering all minorities 9 to 1, they have agreed to establish a multiethnic state with the strongest minority protection regime ever seen in Europe. As they see it, the international community is running out of excuses for further delays in a status resolution of its design, to which Albanians have conceded everything possible short of compromising the new state's ability to function. The United States and Europe have asked them for another 120 days of patience. Beyond this, pressure will build for a unilateral declaration of independence whether or not it has international support.

The bottom line is that Pristina demands nothing short of independence and Belgrade refuses that, so the new troika will end up where Ahtisaari did: stalemate between the parties and the need for the UN Security Council to cast the deciding vote. Given the Kosovo people's overwhelming desire to be free from the state that tried to eliminate them and the lack of any realistic alternative from Belgrade, the international community has little choice but to give Kosovo its independence.

Chris Patten, former European commissioner for external relations, is chairman of the board of the International Crisis Group.

© Copyright 2007 Globe Newspaper Company.

Fair use.

Divided we stand, united we fall!

Mitrovica, Kosovo, January 25, 2007. REUTERS/Hazir Reka

It is now obvious that Kosovo will get some form of independence. Be it "Conditional independence," "supervised independence," "independence lite" or any other name you want to call it - Kosovo will split its ties with Serbia. It would be pointless to call for independence at this time, however I will try to pen some ideas regarding why I think Kosovo's independence will be beneficial for both Kosovo and Serbia.

First and foremost, the benefits of a defined status will be seen immediately among the Kosovars. When I was in Kosovo last summer, the air was stiffling; people were desperate. Besides the lack jobs and money, the psychological barrier of the status quo was so big that it stiffled any type of creativity. Hopefully, as an independent country Kosovo will attract investment and the living standard will improve.

Second, after Kosovo's sovereignty is recognized internationally, Serbia will be able to remove a huge burden off its back. Nonetheless, that will happen only if Serbia chooses to do so. True, ultranationalists won most of the votes in the last election; however that doesn't mean Serbia is not going to recognize the fact that it doesn't have to deal with the issue of Kosovo anymore. Polls show that most Serbs are ready to accept and do expect that Kosovo will become indepedent.

Third, the closure, and ideally mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia, would enable genuine reconciliation to take place between Serbs and Albanians. This is very important for the future of the Balkans.

Last but not least, Kosovo's independence would mean the end of an unstable period in the Balkans. Not only do Kosovars suffer from the status quo, but the whole region does. Hopefully, when I check the news on the Balkans in the future headlines will include words like 'GDP,' 'growth' and 'free trade,' instead of 'war crimes,' 'Mladic,' and 'ethnic tensions.'

Furthermore, if Kosovo is forced back into Serbian rule, only more human suffering will ensue.

Ah-Tito-saari?

However, there is a risk that Serbia will refuse to wake up to the reality. And that may be encouraged by Mr. Ahtisaari's proposal. If the wording of the resolution on Kosovo is too vague, and it doesn't guarantee that Kosovo will be a compact functional state, Serbia may be led to believe that it can one day reconquer Kosovo. Ahtisaari may risk earning the nickname Ah-Tito-saari. Former Yugoslav dictator Tito did give Kosovo that status of an equal federal unit, however Kosovo didn't ge the name 'Republic.' This led to the occupation of Kosovo by Serbia in 1989.

What will happen?

In any case, we are going to have to update our maps very soon. Either through a UN resolution, or unilateral recognition Kosovo is going to be recognized as an independent state. Almost certainly, Serbia will not recognize the new state immediately. Nevertheless, Serbia will recognize the independent Kosovo, either indirectly (through multilateral agreements) or directly, in the medium term. It is also quite likely that Serbia will have to change its constitution if it wants to join the EU.

The immediate aftermath of independence is hard to guess. Some Kosovar Albanians may be unhappy with the settlement and decide to protest in the street. Some Kosovar Serbs might try to cut ties completely with the Kosovo government and join Serbia. Which is highly unlikely to happen, for many reasons, the least of which is not the NATO military presence in all Kosovo areas. Some Serbians might go into the streets to protest the settlement, too. Most Kosovars - including me - will be consuming large amounts of alcohol as part of the celebration of the hard earned freedom.

Kosovo Libre

	January 24, 2007

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

Kosovo Libre January 24, 2007 Somewhere along the way from the 1999 war in Kosovo to the current discussions in Western capitals over what should happen to that predominantly ethnic Albanian province of Serbia, recent Balkan history was turned on its head. The aggressor in that war and three previous regional conflagrations of the past decade -- Serbia -- is now treated like the aggrieved party. The Kosovars, victims first of Slobodan Milosevic's apartheid and then of his ethnic cleansing, are told to put their long-delayed dreams of freedom on hold. The Americans, who ended Serbia's bloody march through the region, have ceded the diplomatic lead on the Balkans to fickle and divided Europeans. So the omens aren't good that the negotiations over Kosovo's "final status," which are about to enter their last days, will redeem the long international commitment in arms and treasury to settle the turbulent Balkans. In the next two weeks, U.N. envoy Martti Ahtisaari will share his vision for Kosovo's future with the Kosovars, Serbs and key diplomatic players. According to our sources, he will go a long way to appease the Serbs and fall considerably short of Kosovar ambitions. The tone was set when Mr. Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president, put off the unveiling, due by end of 2006, to help pro-Western parties contesting last weekend's parliamentary elections in Serbia. To little effect: An ultranationalist group nominally led by an indicted war criminal currently in jail and awaiting trial at the U.N.'s Hague tribunal took the most votes. In further deference to Serbian kvetching, Mr. Ahtisaari will suggest putting the Kosovars on a far shorter leash than anyone anticipated when talks on its future started last year. Russian threats and some vacillating Europeans were another reason why the "international community" scaled back ambitions for an independent Kosovo. The word "independence" probably won't appear in the Ahtisaari document, and Kosovo won't be given a firm timetable to full sovereignty. Instead, the current plan calls for a transitional arrangement of indeterminate duration during which Kosovars will take control of their government under close foreign watch. Led by an EU diplomat, an International Community Office or Mission -- name yet to be decided -- will replace the eight-year-old U.N. administration. This new office will be able to veto legislation or remove elected politicians who are deemed contrary to the "peace process." This would resemble Bosnia's Office of the High Representative. If the EU and U.S. want to pick up another multibillion-dollar tab for another ethnically riven Balkan dependency for the next decade or more, then Bosnia is just the right model. Pushing the Bosniaization of Kosovo further, the Ahtisaari draft plan also enshrines in law ethnic divisions on the ground. Small Serb enclaves will get special powers that will leave them free of control by the capital, Pristina. So, even if Kosovo gets to call itself a state, forget about it being a unitary one. Kosovars expected that any sovereignty would be limited, but not to this extent. Their politicians didn't help their cause by badly mismanaging the few areas of self-rule granted them by the U.N., chiefly over education and health care. The failure to create a safer environment for minority Serbs is also coming back to haunt the Kosovars. But the way to get the Kosovars to grow into self-rule faster is to provide far less intrusive "supervision" and offer clear incentives, say for EU or NATO membership. At the same time, the mooted proposal reflects a serious misunderstanding of Serbian politics. Nationalist demons won't go away if Mr. Ahtisaari just strokes their heads. As the weekend elections showed, a chunk of the Serbian electorate can't accept losing Kosovo and never will. Reformers quietly urge Mr. Ahtisarri to get the Kosovo problem out of the way as fast as possible so Serbs can concentrate on remaking their country into a modern, prosperous European state. But instead the EU indulges Serbia's persecution and entitlement complexes, delays the inevitable and keeps the Kosovo issue alive for nationalists to exploit. Ideally, the Security Council would confirm "independence," in name and fact, while retaining some oversight and keeping NATO troops on the ground. Russia is threatening a veto, if Mr. Ahtisaari were to propose such an option. Their bluff can be called; it's useful to get Moscow obstructionism on the record. More likely is that the Security Council will adopt a hopefully much modified version of the Ahtisaari plan in the spring. Then Kosovo can declare independence and seek international recognition. Serbia will probably try to run interference, but Washington and the bigger European capitals can put that to a quick stop by recognizing Kosovo. Serbia lost its moral and legal claim on Kosovo after the 1999 war. Though it suffers from common Balkan ailments such as organized crime and poverty, Kosovo is full of young, entrepreneurial people. It can one day be a successful, small, free state. To start building that state, Kosovo needs its freedom. The sooner, the better for everyone concerned, not least the Serbs.

Kosovo's moment

Agim Ceku

PRISTINA, Kosovo: This is a critical time for the Balkans: Serbia holds parliamentary elections on Sunday as Kosovo anxiously awaits a final report on the future status of the disputed province by the UN special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari.

We expect Ahtisaari to deny Serbia's demand to grant Kosovo broad autonomy within Serbian borders, and to endorse its bid for independence.

We need an independent Kosovo and a democratic Serbia. The European Union, now under German stewardship, can help by ensuring a common EU position in support of independence.

An independent Kosovo would benefit the region economically, politically and in terms of security. A decision on its status is long overdue, and as a result local frustrations are on the rise while the region continues to stagnate.

We need a new dynamic if we are to catch up with the EU. An independent Kosovo can provide that dynamic. Only the people of Kosovo — ethnic Albanians, Serbs and other minorities working together — can ensure that the province undergoes a successful transition.

A stable and prosperous Kosovo means a stable and prosperous region. Kosovo has a sound macroeconomic system, a broad tax base and a modern legislative system that protects private property and investors. Our labor laws are flexible. Kosovo has one of the simplest mechanisms for registering a company in the region. The government is currently overseeing a $2.3 billion coal energy development project — Kosovo has the fifth largest reserves of coal in the world.

Kosovo has changed in fundamental ways since NATO forces defeated Slobodan Milosevic's army in 1999 and a UN mission came to administer the province. Standards of living and personal freedom have improved, and we are working to give practical underpinnings to our reassurance to our minority citizens that the process of transition in Kosovo is for the good of us all.

We are ensuring that our Serb minority will live in municipalities where the police, schools and hospitals will be run by Serbs. We recognize Serbian as one of the official languages of Kosovo, and we further guarantee representation to our minorities in the government.

The future of the Kosovo Serbs is in Kosovo, and Kosovo's future is with its Serbs. We will succeed if we manage to preserve the multiethnic character of Kosovo. Those who misguidedly advocate partition, ignoring the fact that most of our Serbs are spread across Kosovo, are trying to challenge this future as well as call into question the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Macedonia.

We understand the stakes. Independence is above all a responsibility — a responsibility toward our citizens and the region. Independence is a beginning. Kosovo must develop a sustainable economy and we must improve our security capabilities. We can do both if we invest now in our young population so as to ensure their competitive edge in a globalized economy.

Kosovo is committed to a European future, but we have no illusions. We know that the European perspective for Kosovo is a work in progress. But I firmly believe that the whole region will move faster once Kosovo's independence is recognized; this includes Serbia, which would move relatively quickly toward the EU if it were free of the Kosovo issue.

We have two Serbias today. One is modern and economically progressive, open-minded about Kosovo, and has its compass set on the EU. The other Serbia is obsessed with Kosovo and stifled by backward-looking nationalist thinking.

The election Sunday in Serbia is about Europe and the future. Serbia does not need Kosovo in order to move to Europe. In fact, Serbia risks losing both Kosovo and its European perspective if voters on Sunday elect radicals and nationalist politicians. The illusion that Kosovo will again be part of Serbia is better left aside.

International law bestows upon states both rights and responsibilities. It is the responsibility of a government to protect its citizens and accord them equal rights. Serbia has failed to do so.

Europe will play a key role in coming months as the discussion on the final status of Kosovo moves to the UN Security Council. European consensus on Kosovo's final status will help ensure that we soon have a UN mandate, which would be a preferred solution.

As the leader of the EU, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany can use her moral authority and Germany's political clout to build a European consensus backing Kosovo's independence.

Success in Kosovo would remind the world of the potential of the United Nations and of NATO to work for international peace. It would bolster international and national confidence in their continued relevance.

I firmly believe that both institutions have played a crucial role in Kosovo's transformation. It would be truly unfortunate to undermine all these years of hard work and progress by losing the political will to move to the logical next stage — the recognition of an independent Kosovo.

This is Kosovo's moment, but we share it with the European Union. Strong leadership by the German presidency in overcoming division in Europe on Kosovo's final status will ensure that we seize this historic opportunity, pronounce Kosovo independent and begin a genuine regional push toward the EU.

Agim Ceku is the prime minister of Kosovo.

Kosovo's moment - International Herald Tribune

Albanians look to 2007 for Kosovo independence

Kosovo's majority ethnic Albanians had been expecting independence in the expiring year, but will, with gnawing impatience and concern, have to wait until late January 2007 just to hear a United Nations proposal on the future status of the breakaway Serbian province.

As the international community was preparing finally to launch direct talks between Pristina and Belgrade at the end of 2005, Albanian leaders - who make up some 90 per cent of Kosovans - read all the signals and confidently promised a sovereign state quickly.

In his final appearance in December 2005, then with less than a month to live, father-of-the-nation Ibrahim Rugova said, "We did not achieve independence (in 2005), but we will have it in 2006."

But a year on and after 10 months of talks with Serbia, held under UN auspices in Vienna, independence still lurks behind a corner.

"We believed the Contact Group (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the United States) that the status would be resolved," Deputy Premier Lutfi Haziri said, admitting that the delay has "damaged" the credibility of Kosovo's leadership.

He and other leaders remain confident that no outcome but independence is possible - and it is the course which the west appears to be favouring, though with the usual diplomatic coyness.

"Our work is done. We're within reach and are now just waiting for the results," Haziri, also a local government minister and a key negotiator with Belgrade, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

"Regarding independence, we crossed Rubicon," said Veton Suroi, another Pristina negotiator, journalist, publicist and leader of the opposition ORA party.

The UN envoy in the talks, former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari, is due to reveal his proposal for Kosovo's status after the January 21 parliamentary elections in Serbia, instead of as originally planned in late 2006.

No Kosovo Albanian leader expects a change from the Serbian elections. "I don't think anybody has an illusion that whatever government is elected there will recognize the right of Kosovo to be independent," Suroi told dpa.

So, without a compromise in sight, it will be up to Ahtisaari, the UN and the big powers to impose a solution. The Serbs are wary, while Albanians expect Ahtisaari to open the door to Kosovo's independence.

"We expect the finalization of the status process, paving the way for Kosovo's statehood," Haziri said. "Then, a new constitution, local and parliamentary polls, ratification of the European Integration Strategy with Brussels (and) the drafting of social policies."

Suroi says Ahtisaari would propose "a clear, explicit formulation for independence," though "without doubt" conditioned by the implementation of laid-out standards.

"We will have an international military presence and an international civilian presence," he added.

But Albin Kurti, a former political prisoner of Serbia, now leader of the Vetvendosja (Self-determination) movement, dismissed the talks and the international presence as a joke at the expense of the Albanians.

"We do not know yet what that (Ahtisaari's) proposal will contain, but we know what it will not contain," said Kurti. "It will not contain foreign and defence ministries and a seat in the UN."

"We will have one bureaucracy instead of another, from UN to EU, another interim mission with control over police, courts, economy and defence," he added.

The talks failed to bring Belgrade and Pristina any closer - Serbs insist on sovereignty over Kosovo, while Albanians want nothing but independence. Haziri and Suroi say there was nothing left to discuss.

"All issues we negotiated with Serbia do not need to be negotiated any more," Haziri said. "Otherwise we'd return the process to square one - and we're not interested to see it go backwards and face problems that may arise from the delays."

The hottest issue in the talks, apart from the status itself, was decentralization. Internal borders and local authority were crucial because they are seen as a means of protecting the embattled Serbs, mostly living in enclaves in northern Kosovo, near Serbia proper.

While Belgrade and Pristina stick adamantly to their positions regarding independence, Haziri said decentralization talks were brining benefits to the Serbs.

"Apart from rights derived from international norms, we have defined protection mechanisms for minorities in Kosovo and their representation in institutions," he said.

In his words, after the re-drawing of Kosovo's municipal lines, "90 per cent of Kosovo's Serbs will self-administer in the sectors of health, education and local politics dealing with everyday life."

Kurti said the "territorial concessions" were a threat to Kosovo's integrity. He voiced the concern in Pristina that a consolidated Serb territory would be more prone to seek unification with Serbia.

But while international officials tend to be vague regarding Kosovo, they have explicitly laid out three rules: Kosovo would not return to Belgrade's rule as it was before the bloodshed in 1999, it may not in the future join other states and it may not be divided.

By Fatmir Aliu

© 2006 DPA

Kosovo’s Status: Difficult Months Ahead

This is the latest report of the ICG. As usual they are right in their observations and recommendations. I would add that it is not only important that there is no delay of the proposal, but that the content of the proposal should be acceptable to the Kosovo population. I guess, ICG assumes that this will be the case.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW BRIEFING

Kosovo’s Status: Difficult Months Ahead

Pristina/Belgrade/Brussels, 20 December 2006: With Russia’s position hardening and Serbia as obstinate as ever, EU unity is vital to keep the Kosovo final status process on track.

Kosovo’s Status: Difficult Months Ahead,* the new briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the possible consequences of a botched status process that fails to consolidate the prospect of a Kosovo state within its present borders. UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari announced a short postponement for the presentation of his Kosovo final status proposals until after the 21 January elections in Serbia, but there is growing concern that this may not be the last delay.

“The international community will need to give Ahtisaari strong and unambiguous support to get this process wrapped up in the first half of next year”, says Nicholas Whyte, Director of Crisis Group’s Europe Program. “His proposals need to hit the ground running in January because rising Albanian frustration means time is running out for Kosovo”.

Since international intervention evicted Belgrade from the province in 1999, Kosovo has been run as a UN protectorate. UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which mandates an international administration, is ambiguous on the duration of Belgrade’s technical sovereignty over Kosovo. But it does make clear that Belgrade, having violently expelled more than 700,000 Kosovo Albanians in 1999, has lost the right to run the province, and that following a period of international administration, a political process will determine final status.

The international community must deliver upon its promises, implied and explicit:

• The Contact Group should not permit further delay in Ahtisaari’s proposals after Serbia’s January elections and should not dilute them. It should refer them quickly to the UN for Security Council consideration.
• The EU Council should give its preparations and requirements for assuming post-status responsibilities in Kosovo more prominence, both for European public opinion and the Security Council. The incoming German Presidency should make uniting member states behind the Ahtisaari proposals a top priority.
• The Security Council should act promptly and positively when it receives Ahtisaari’s proposals, recognising that delay would likely mean a return of Kosovo to its agenda soon in crisis circumstances.
• Kosovo institutions should strengthen good governance to gain more legitimacy with their public and be prepared to exercise new responsibilities effectively once status is resolved.
• Serbia should be encouraged to engage with the Kosovo independence project and extract the maximum benefit for its own long-term interests and those of the Kosovo Serb minority but be left in no doubt that it does not have a veto over the status decision.

“The precarious situation in Kosovo makes it essential that its elite, institutions and society use 2007 to make a great adjustment: away from threats of crisis and toward sustainable self-governance”, says Alex Anderson, Crisis Group’s Kosovo Project Director. “If Kosovo is to graduate to independence in 2007 – as it should – it must at the same time grow up”.