The Balkans Needs to Form its Own Union

The Balkans Needs to Form its Own Union

With early EU entry for Balkans states unlikely, they should consider forming a union of their own.By Peter Sain ley Berry in Cardiff (Balkan Insight, 9 Nov 06)There was understandable disappointment in the Balkans after the European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, told the European parliament a month ago that further enlargement would have to be put on hold until the EU had resolved its internal institutional problems.This disappointment triggered questions in the region: was Barroso saying the EU did not want the Balkans? If not, how long might we have to wait to join? What should the response of Balkan countries be?I am not a spokesman for Barroso, but if I were to respond to these questions I would do so as follows.First, the EU does want the Balkans. There is no question about this. Europe will remain incomplete without them. Provided it is the democratic will of the countries concerned, they will join. But there is a question of timing.From the perspective of the Balkans, the EU must look stable and established, its shape, direction and role in the world immutably assured. From inside the EU, however, this is far from the case. This is a union of countries that is still evolving. We are far from knowing the final result.Basically this is because until now the union has progressed simultaneously on two fronts - widening, in terms of the number of member states, and deepening, in terms of the level of integration.This has enabled it to preserve its unique governmental structure. Think of the widening as bricks and deepening as cement. The more countries you have the more you need to do in common to hold the structure together.Now, what happened in 2004? Ten new states joined the union but the Constitutional Treaty that would have provided the requisite additional deepening was rejected in referenda the following year. As a result, the union is now unbalanced, which has triggered a period of uncertainty in intra-EU relations and the EU's internal machinery of government.The addition of fresh member states will merely compound this problem. Without measures such as a more structured leadership to the European Council, an EU foreign minister, more qualified majority voting and a greater role for the European parliament, collective decisions will become progressively harder to reach.Unless the EU's institutions are reformed the consequence, therefore, is likely to be a two-speed Europe in which some wealthy countries form an exclusive inner group.Few want to see such a development, which would certainly not be in the interests of states aspiring to become members.The question is how long it may take the existing EU states to resolve this problem over deepening. Can Europe combine a large number of member states without resorting to a powerful central presidency?My guess is that it will take a fair number of years. The problem is that the EU is split, with some politicians recognising that further deepening is necessary if the EU is to flourish and enlarge and others viewing this process with suspicion.So, should the EU enlarge, but weaken and loosen as a political entity, or should it develop into a more federalist structure with a stronger central government? This is the conundrum now blocking further enlargement.How this debate will resolve is anyone's guess. My own view is that the strategic issues facing the EU such as globalisation, climate change, demography, energy security, population movement, terrorism - all of which demand concerted action at EU level - will push the debate in the deepening direction. Eventually we may find ourselves with a new and more democratic constitutional settlement that recognises an eventual union of up to 40 states.Obviously, this will not happen overnight; it may come about in several stages over the next 10 years or so. The Balkan states may not have to wait as long as this for admission, but equally they should be prepared for such a delay. How then should they pass the time?My suggestion is that the Western Balkans and other potential EU candidates should not compete over accession to the EU, racing against each other to slip in under a closing door; they should cooperate.As the EU seeks increasing involvement with the Western Balkans, Turkey, Ukraine and the Caucasus, these countries should respond by working together to address issues of reform and development that they need to tackle in any case before accession.One way of doing this would be by forming a community of their own, with common institutions paralleling those of the EU. This entire community might then adhere to the EU as a bloc.This is an entirely personal view, not one endorsed by any of those countries. Nonetheless, I believe that would be the soundest and ultimately the surest strategic direction both for them and for the existing members of the EU.

Peter Sain ley Berry has worked as a consultant with various European companies and undertaken information work for the European Commission. He contributes a weekly political column to the Brussels-based EUobserver and is the editor of Europaworld.

The Balkans Needs to Form its Own Union

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